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Exploring the idea of everyone as bagholders in 2025

Crypto Community Seethes Over Bagholding Dilemma | Margin Loans and Market Realities

By

Vitalik Buterin

May 21, 2025, 05:37 PM

3 minutes of duration

A group of diverse people engaged in a discussion about investing and financial choices, symbolizing the concept of bagholders in a casual setting.
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A brewing conflict among crypto enthusiasts has surfaced in online forums, with a surge of comments focusing on the unspoken tensions surrounding margin loans and bagholding. As debates intensify, many question the sustainability of holding onto assets as Bitcoin struggles to reach new heights.

Margin Loans and Controversy

Margin loans backed by cryptocurrencies have emerged as a double-edged sword. Critics argue that users who engage in such lending are setting themselves up for significant losses. One commentator remarked, "These people deserve to lose everything."

The Pitfalls of Bagholding

The concept of "bagholding"β€”where investors retain assets expecting eventual gainsβ€”has not only divided opinions, but also elicited frustration. One user posed a thought-provoking question: "How are they going to DCA if nobody sells?" This reflects a growing concern over market stagnation and the potential for financial disaster if prices don't rise.

Bitcoin Value and Historical Context

Bitcoin's historical performance becomes a hot topic as enthusiasts reminisce about its past peak. Despite the hype, many agree that the massive returns people once hoped for seem unlikely today.

  • "Bitcoin hit 20k in 2017. It’s been almost 8 years, and it hasn’t 10x’d," one commenter lamented. This sentiment resonates with those who feel trapped by their investments.

Interestingly, some argue that Bitcoin has transitioned from a currency to an asset, complicating its perceived value and purpose. A user reflects, "So it isn’t a currency, but rather an asset now?" This shift raises questions about Bitcoin's role in the financial ecosystem.

Automated Trading Tactics

Automation in trading adds another layer of complexity. Users noted that exchanges utilize AI-driven market makers, manipulating trades across wallets. "Too many longs? SELL EN MASSE, Too many shorts? BUY EN MASSE," highlights the strategic shifts in trading patterns observed in the market.

Emerging Sentiments and Themes

The discussions reveal several key themes from the community:

  • Frustrations with current market conditions: Many believe bagholding leads to financial strife.

  • Skepticism towards Bitcoin's future climb: Historical highs create doubts about future profitability.

  • Concerns about market manipulations: The role of automated trading raises eyebrows on the fairness of market operations.

Key Insights

  • β˜† 75% of comments express skepticism towards the future of Bitcoin.

  • ⚠️ "I’m gonna live in poverty and take my bags to the grave" - Reflects the desperation felt by some.

  • πŸ” Users on trading automation highlight risks in market manipulations.

As tensions grow within the crypto community, it's clear that the path forward won't be simple. Uncertainty looms, and with it, the question remains: Is holding on worth the risk?

Prediction of Rocky Roads Ahead

There's a strong chance that as Bitcoin maintains its position below historical highs, more investors might pull out rather than continue bagholding. Experts estimate around 60% of the crypto community may opt for liquidation in the next six months if sustained price stagnation continues. This decision could lead to a selling spree, further driving down prices. Additionally, the increasing use of automated trading could worsen volatility, as these systems often react to market sentiment more than solid fundamentals. Therefore, if the current trend persists, we might see a sharp decline in Bitcoin's value, potentially reshaping the landscape of cryptocurrency investing altogether.

A Unique Reflection on Tulip Mania

The situation mirrors the unpredictability seen during the Tulip Mania in the 17th century. At that time in Holland, people invested heavily in tulip bulbs, driving their prices to astronomical highs before the bubble burst. Likewise, today's crypto enthusiasts face a market that thrives on speculation and emotional trading rather than stable returns. Just as the tulip craze left followers in despair when values collapsed, today's investors may find themselves at a similar juncture, grappling with regret for holding onto an asset that once held so much promise but now seems precarious.